Is a 50-38 lead for Democrats enough to take back congress?

[catatonic]

Or is it not even close?

Remember, a lot of voting districts have been gerrymandered by now, using computer technology to get the maximum effect without tipping off a judge. It will be hard to take back power, but if we do John McCain has said to Republicans they better hope it never happens after what they've done to Democrats.

[sam i am]

Or is it not even close?

Remember, a lot of voting districts have been gerrymandered by now, using computer technology to get the maximum effect without tipping off a judge. It will be hard to take back power, but if we do John McCain has said to Republicans they better hope it never happens after what they've done to Democrats.

The key here is that lead is over a year out from the actual elections in Novemebr of 2006. So many things can happen between now and then that it is nearly impossible for Demos to start patting themselves on the back and start measuring themselves for the majority suits they've ordered.

IF Iraqi elections on the Constitution move forward as planned and IF the Sunnis feel they can be a part of the process and IF Bush can mend his image over the hurricanes (all of which are doable, if not exceptionally difficult), THEN we'll certainly see the polls swing the other way.

Also, don't forget the chances for "surprises" between now and then : Osama captured or killed, North Korea giving up nukes, the economy continuing to strengthen, oil prices coming down, etc.

All of those events, plus myriad others that can effect public opinion, are still to be seen if they will occur.

Finally, your last point about gerrymanderred districts is spot-on. The likelihood of any huge grass-roots Demo resurgence into power where they topple a significant number of Republican incumbents is close to zero. Some will fall, as always, but others will rise to take their places.