The Fate of Nintendo Wii

[Miho Mingu]

This is a good read, talking about the history of Nintendo's flops, and where Wii currently stands. (http://gameinformer.com/News/Story/200609/N06.0915.1324.09291.htm)

The prices of the console and games are affordable, the launch games are diverse enough for everybody, and the Virtual Console service is an excellent feature. The true questions are - for how long will third party developers support Wii, and will they devote enough time for original titles?

[Kid Presentable]

Technologically, the wii is unsustainable in terms of its competitors. Eventually it will be outpowered. Actually, it enters the market outpowered.

Also, the 'innovation' strategy only succeeds when the machine is innovative, which I feel time will quell. People will find it passe and Nintendo will have to come up with something new.

That said, if there is a company who could make it work, it's Nintendo (look at the DS), but they're going to have to target a new demographic of very casual gamers.

[tracky]

I think nintendo pretty much lost the race 5-10 years ago, now they're just staying in it for the championship points

[Kid Presentable]

I think nintendo pretty much lost the race 5-10 years ago, now they're just staying in it for the championship points
They have market share in Japan, I believe.

Nintendo Dominates First Half Game Sales in Japan (NTDOY)

Posted on Jul 6th, 2006 with stocks: MSFT, NTDOY.PK, SNE

Steven Towns submits: In the U.S. there's a lot of talk about how the videogame industry is struggling as everyone waits for Sony Corp's (SNE) release of its PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Co's (NTDOY) launch of its Wii this November. In Japan it's a different story. As I reported on Tuesday per a WSJ article, "Nintendo is Quietly Stealing the Show." Third-party data published by Reuters in an article today illustrates why Nintendo's shares have risen 40+% year-to-date.

Key stats:

• Videogame software & hardware sales in Japan increased 33.6% y-o-y in 1H'06 to 277 billion yen ($2.4b)

• Nintendo's DS Lite and original DS handheld consoles were the top two selling units at 2.6 million and 1.3 million units sold, respectively

• Sony PlayStation Portable came in 3rd with just under 1 million units sold

• Nintendo had the 1st and 3rd best selling software titles: the latest version of "Brain Training for Adults" and "New Super Mario Bros"

• Japan's game software market grew 30.4% to 175 billion yen ($1.5b) in the 1st half leading to the first year-over-year growth in three years

Nintendo's weakness has been in its non-handheld consoles where Microsoft (MSFT) already has its next-generation system on the market (the Xbox 360) and seems to be doing quite well in the US and EU. Sony typically dominates the domestic Japanese market and of course has strong global sales. If interest in the Wii at E3 is any indication of how sales will go, then maybe this time Nintendo can win back some market share and continue to please shareholders.

Nintendo ordinary shares (Tokyo: 7974) gained 4.06% on Thursday to close at 20,520 yen (for an equivalent close of $22.27 for its ADRs). Nintendo's ADRs closed at $21.15 yesterday and are potentially trading at about a 1.25% discount depending on how high they trade in response to Tokyo's close and on the yen-dollar exchange rate. Its ADRs have a 52-week and multi-year high of $22.50.

[Miho Mingu]

That said, if there is a company who could make it work, it's Nintendo (look at the DS), but they're going to have to target a new demographic of very casual gamers.

Yeah, come to think of it, that is a great point. Nintendo should apply the same strategy from the DS, to the Wii - in regards to releasing obscure type titles, that don't typically see releases. (outside Japan anyway) They may as well, as the DS and Wii will work together in some ways.

[Kid Presentable]

From Bloomberg.

Nintendo Says Japan's Women, Elderly May Be Key to Wii Success

By Kyoko Suzuki and Kanoko Matsuyama

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Nintendo Co.'s new Wii game console, an easy-to-use player that can also trawl the Internet, may win over millions of first-time video gamers and help the company reclaim the market lead from Sony Corp.

``We want to appeal to mothers who don't want consoles in their living rooms, and to the elderly and to young women,'' President Satoru Iwata said in a Sept. 14 interview. ``It's a challenge, like trying to sell cosmetics to men.''

Nintendo's Wii will compete with Sony's PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 for a bigger share of the $20 billion global game-console market, which the Kyoto, Japan-based company hasn't led since 1994. The Wii features a TV-remote-size controller that players can brandish like a sword or swing like a racket, with the movements replicated onscreen.

``Wii definitely could become the most popular console of all time,'' said Hirokazu Hamamura, president of Tokyo-based video-game researcher Enterbrain Inc. ``Non-gamers can see how fun it is just by looking at people playing it, and that's very different from the PS3 or Xbox 360.''

The features may help the company win customers faster than its current offering, the Nintendo DS portable player, Iwata said from Chiba prefecture, east of Tokyo. ``If we can do this, the Wii could break all the boundaries in terms of user rates for game consoles,'' he said.

Some 62 percent of game players are male, the U.S.-based Entertainment Software Association said on its Web site. About 26 percent, or 31 million people, in Japan play video games, according to the country's Computer Entertainment Supplier's Association.

Cheaper Player

Nintendo will start selling the Wii, pronounced ``we,'' on Nov. 19 in the U.S. and on Dec. 2 in Japan. It will sell for $249.99, less than half the $499 Sony plans to charge for the cheapest PlayStation 3, which goes on sale in Japan on Nov. 11.

Microsoft's Xbox 360, released last November, retails for no more than $399 for a version with a hard disk. The company will begin selling a cheaper model without a hard disk in Japan for 29,800 yen ($252) from Nov. 2.

``We are not battling Sony or Microsoft,'' Iwata said. ``Our enemy is consumer indifference to games.''

Nintendo has included a raft of features, including software that allows buyers to create characters resembling themselves by tapping a database of facial features. The player will provide weather information, news and an Internet browser, all of which may attract non-gamers to use the console, Iwata said.

``Wii is the first machine that has the potential to truly prompt people to use the Internet on their television,'' said Tokyo-based Nomura Securities Co. analyst Eiichi Katayama, who rates Sony ``neutral'' and doesn't have a rating on Nintendo. ``It could turn into the next-generation television.''

PlayStation, Xbox

Nintendo lost the top position in the global gaming industry after Sony started selling the PlayStation in 1994, and its market share fell further with the debut of Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox in 2002.

The PlayStation 2, introduced in March 2000, is the world's leading game machine, with 106 million units sold.

Still, Nintendo's DS and the slimmer DS Lite accounted for 63 percent of Japanese computer gaming sales in the six months to June 25, according to researcher Enterbrain. New varieties of software, including ``Nintendogs,'' through which users own a virtual puppy, and the quiz challenge, ``Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day!'' prompted non-gamers to pick up the DS, Iwata said.

Shares of Nintendo, the world's biggest maker of handheld game players, rose 57 percent this year, beating Sony's 3.1 percent gain. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.3 percent.

Declining Market

The new offerings from Nintendo and Sony may help revive the Japanese market for game machines, which fell for three straight years until 2004, when the DS and Sony's first handheld players were released. Japan is Nintendo's largest market.

The company's biggest challenge will be in demonstrating the Wii's features to non-gamers because the device isn't portable, Enterbrain's Hamamura said.

An increase in the number of game titles for the Wii will help the company attract users, Iwata said. The success of the DS and DS Lite prompted software publishers such as Activision Inc. to create more games for the Wii, which will help boost sales of the machine, he said.

Activision will have five games for the Wii's U.S. debut, the company's biggest lineup for a new console, Robert Kotick, chief executive officer of the Santa Monica, California-based company, said in a statement on Sept. 14.

Nintendo expects to have 30 games in the U.S. and 27 in Japan by Dec. 31, including Wii Sports, a compilation of tennis, baseball, golf, bowling and boxing.

Too Sophisticated

Sony, which hasn't given the number of titles it will introduce with the PlayStation 3, said on Sept. 6 it will delay the European debut of the console by four months to March. The company also halved its shipment target this year to 2 million units because it wouldn't be able to make a key component on time.

``Sony's PS3 is said to be too sophisticated for some overseas developers, which has led them to turn to the Wii'' to have products in time for Christmas, said Etsuko Tamura, an analyst with Mizuho Investors Securities Co., who rates Nintendo ``neutral plus.''

[The Notorious LOL]

Although this system is the cheapest, its basically just slightly more powerful than the original xbox.


Dont get me wrong, I am looking forward to it but it will be second place at best. Heres why:


1). There still is limited third party support, which leads into my second point.

2). The fucking controller. I realize its 'innovative' and shit but unless its really as revolutionary as nintendo claims (which they also claimed of the Virtual Boy), it will break them and interest in the company. Also, the fact that the shit costs $60 for a second one? Fuck outta here.

3). Any true excitement about the virtual console feature is squashed by licensing issues. Goldeneye? Wont happen. It'll cost too much to license. Rare games? Also wont happen because of their agreement with Microsoft. That means no Conker, no Banjo Kazooie, etc. A lot of third party companies just dont see the benefit in re-licensing these games for "virtual console" useage when they'll see pennies of profit, and anyone who really wants the game can save their $5 and download an emulator on their PC for free.

overall, it'll outsell the PS3 I am sure, but Microsoft will most likely drop the system price of the Xbox 360 for the holiday season about $50 and watch their sales take first, with wii in second.

[Kid Presentable]

You notice most of the hype around the machine is generated by Nintendo themselves, too.

[Pres Zount]

Somebody said that since wii would be cheaper than the other two, a person could feasibly buy a 360 and a wii, or a ps3 and a wii. So wii would still be second choice - but still sell lots.

[na§tee]

all i care about is that they should be successful enough to warrant more awesome games being created for it and a good, long shelf life. i can't even go into a shop and buy gamecube games anymore, they're so rare. people just stopped stocking them.

[ET]

You notice most of the hype around the machine is generated by Nintendo themselves, too.

I think the huge line for the Wii (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUHORFW4q0) at E3 kind of saved them the trouble. Oh yeah, Activision has the Bond rights and Microsoft would have to OK a Goldeneye rerelease. Rogue Agent came out on the DS so there is a Slight chance it could happen on Wii. Microsoft could profit on it (!) so why not do it? Bill is a whore. GO BILL GATES! Probably won't happen though.

Also, here's a nice altered clip making fun of Sony at E3. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH2w2l1JTs4) They'll probably do pretty well with their shit though.

[Kid Presentable]

I think the huge line for the Wii (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUHORFW4q0) at E3 kind of saved them the trouble. Oh yeah, Activision has the Bond rights and Microsoft would have to OK a Goldeneye rerelease. Rogue Agent came out on the DS so there is a Slight chance it could happen on Wii. Microsoft could profit on it (!) so why not do it? Bill is a whore. GO BILL GATES! Probably won't happen though.

Also, here's a nice altered clip making fun of Sony at E3. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH2w2l1JTs4) They'll probably do pretty well with their shit though.
Fair enough. My bad, I hadn't even considered E3.

[Lex Diamonds]

The N64 was NOT a flop. That shit was da bomb, yo.

[The Notorious LOL]

the 64 was a flop.


I liked the Dreamcast but that was a flop as well.

[skra75]

Dreamcast hahahahahahahha!

[The Notorious LOL]

fuck you fucker

[TurdBerglar]

dreamcast had some of the best games since snes

[The Notorious LOL]

Rez, for example. REZ. REZ RULZ

[ET]

SFA 3, Jet Set Radio, Capcom vs Marvel 2, Soul Calibur, Power Stone, Guilty Gear, Virtua On, Shenmue...

etc .etc.

[beastieangel01]

yeah Dreamcast was good shit.

I have high hopes for Wii.

[cosmo105]

DC 4 LIFE

[beastieangel01]

I remember when "FO" was in place of "4" and now "4" is the most commonly used.

I miss "FO"!

DC FO LIFE!

okay nevermind that looks stupid.

[discopants]

You guys seem to be missing an obvious point- they might as well have called it the Nintendo Piss. I mean, come on! Who's gonna walk into Dixons and ask for a wee?

[Pres Zount]

EDIT: unfunny.

[Kid Presentable]

wii went through this months ago.

[Pres Zount]

I'm pretty sure I've already used that joke somewhere. I feel embarrassed.

I may have stolen it. (n)

[Kid Presentable]

They're all stolen.

[discopants]

Hey hey hey, its a sad day when you cant make a wee joke. Iman, come on, are we all gonna become traffic wardens or something? I demand te basic liberty to make wee/ poo jokes without George W Bush declaring me an axis of evil. Okay?

[Deep_Sea_Rain]

I'm hoping it will do for Nintendo what the DS did...just rip open a new market...

It certainly has the potential, especially with all this negative buzz about the PS3.