The Numbers

[QueenAdrock]

I just wanted to point out some interesting (to me, at least) stats on the elections.

Popular vote (includes Michigan, and caucuses):

Obama: 18,345,878
Hillary: 18,374,316
McCain: 9,506,937

Now I know that it's not as simple as this, that there's a lot more to take into account (Republicans voting in Democratic contests to screw up numbers, Republicans not caring after McCain got the nomination, etc), so I'm using these calculations as a generalization, and not as scientific evidence. But also consider the fact that Clinton and Obama together received 16.9 million votes in first 25 Democratic primaries. McCain, Romney and Huckabee together received 10.6 million in first 24 GOP primaries. Before anyone had dropped out, there were still 6.3 million more people who came out and voted in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. That to me, shows more voters and more enthusiasm on the Democratic side. 17% of Hillary voters have said they'd go to McCain (60% to Obama), which would make it 29.4 million in the Obama category, and 12.6 million in McCain's category, based on the numbers we have present to us now. McCain would still have quite a bit of catching up to do, rallying the Republican vote, appealing to moderates, getting new time voters. Obama has already appealed to new time voters and will continue to do so, and has a ton of Democratic support. All this talk about "splitting" the party doesn't quite add up.

Other polls have shown Obama winning against McCain, every time. CNN, CBS, Rassmussen, Gallup. The average is 47% Obama, 44.5% McCain.

That's not all. Prediction markets are going to Obama. Averages show that 50.3% of the people have a "favorable" view of Obama, versus a 38.5% "unfavorable" view. 47.3% hold a "favorable" view of McCain, versus a 40.8% "unfavorable" view.

Like I said, take statistics with a grain of salt, but the trend that is emerging is clear. We're taking back the White House come this November.

Links on the left side:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Bob]

i don't know. the numbers, whatever they mean, are still pretty close. and november is still a long way away; this contest hasn't really even started yet, i think it would be a mistake to rest on optimism before we see how it goes. god knows what could happen, if that "michelle obama doesn't care about white people" thing is any indication

[QueenAdrock]

I know, which is why I said take it with a grain of salt. But as of right now, the Democrats are ahead and we need to hold on to that momentum. I know that a lot of people feel defeated already because the Democrats "always manage to fuck things up" (and they do), but the point of this thread is to tell the people not to give up hope when we do have an honest, fighting chance as of this point and are ahead.

[RobMoney$]

Obama in a landslide.
Relax.

[ToucanSpam]

Stats are too close to use words like 'landslide' just yet. And like you pointed out, stats should be taken with a grain of salt.

The numbers remind me of 2004 where Kerry looked to be in a good position. And I think the words 'we're taking back the White House' were used then too.




...Don't mind me, Queen, I'm playing devil's advocate.:eek:

[RobMoney$]

Landslide


...and by landslide I mean he'll win by more than 10%.
Don't be fooled by the talking heads that will tell you the sky is falling. They need this to be a race so they have something to talk about to fill airtime space.

[Documad]

It's nice that people are excited but as you recognize it's apples and oranges. For instance, I don't think you can tell anything based upon who showed up for caucuses. Even though McCain was the presumptive nominee at that point, I think he came in third in my state. Caucuses are for nutjobs (speaking as one of the nutjobs). It take hours and hours, not like primaries where you just vote and leave.

People at my caucuses were super excited in 2004 as well. :(

[QueenAdrock]

Yeah, but also remember that 2004 was against an incumbent war president. I can't stress that enough. Deep down, no matter how much optimism I had, I knew that the war had too strong a backing to "change horses midstream." The American people are against the war in a major way now, so the tides are turning.

[Documad]

It all depends on who actually shows up to vote on that one day, and what state those people are located in. I have hope, I really do. I can't believe that we as a country could vote to continue the same course and I can't believe that we would elect a man who is over 70 years old to take one of the most physically demanding jobs around.

Here's one reason for my sick tummy: If you look at my state, we look solid blue. We haven't voted for a republican in the general election since probably Nixon in 72 (I didn't look that up though). We were the only state Reagan lost in 84. Our democratic caucuses (where a teeny tiny percentage of even potential democrats attend) endorsed Obama with about 2/3rds of the vote. But I was at a coffee shop in the suburbs about 4 weeks ago when I overheard a table of people in their early 60s talking. About 12 people. These people were speaking out loud in one of the most politically correct metro areas and they were saying the most racist bullshit. Sure it was sort of veiled racism (if you're a moron like them). They were running through a list of black mayors who had mismanaged their cities, like Marion Barry. They were using "they" a lot to make broad negative statements. I thought about saying something (it's in my nature) but while I was thinking of what to say, they started clearing their table. I've been kicking myself ever since for not being fast enough, but they I also wonder whether that would have made them more hostile to other local democrats and thus wouldn't have been worth it. They probably wouldn't have voted for Hillary either (one of them called her a socialist). They thought Obama is a Muslim, and I wanted to say "Haven't you been watching all this crap on TV about his minister? How can anyone fail to realize that he's a Christian now?" ERR. Also something about how my friends don't believe that racism is alive an well in this state in 2008 and here I have proof positive. ERR.

But people in their 60s who live in the suburbs are going to vote. I'm not sure whether we can turn out the more open minded people, the urban people, the younger people who aren't right wing, etc. We did a pretty good job of turning those people out for Kerry and he took our state in 2004 even though it was supposed to be a swing state. I personally rousted about a hundred people out of one of our more poor urban neighborhoods. I also had a supremely frustrating conversation with an intelligent black guy who refused to vote because he thought Kerry wasn't any different from Bush. I hope he will vote this year. His wife voted last time and she will be leaning on him, as will his teenage son. :)

[chromium05]

After Obama's sucking up to AIPAC a few days ago, he is as big a LIAR and CONMAN as the clintons.

He fed you all this bullsh*t about getting troops out of Iran and jumping all over Clintons remark about "Obliterating Iran", then goes and promises $30 BILLION dollars to Israel in military assistance.

$30 Billion dollars from where, Mr fu*king money magician???

QUOTE - "I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally, Israel. Do not be confused." Obama on Tehran's nuclear position.

On the campaign trail, Obama publicly berated Clinton for her remarks about Iran's Revolutionary Guards being labelled as terrorists, then at the AIPAC meeting declared that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force has "rightly been labeled a terrorist organization."

The guy is full of sh*t.

Sorry America, but your knight in shining armor is just another rusty warmongerer.

You can't polish a turd......

[saz]

according to guy T. saperstein, robmoney$ is on the money:



Obama in a Blowout: The Presidential Election Will Not Be Close

By Guy T. Saperstein, AlterNet. Posted June 6, 2008.


The November presidential election is not going to be close. Barack Obama is going to beat John McCain by 8 to 10 points in the national popular vote and win 300 to 350 electoral votes.

The Republican Party is led -- and branded -- by an extraordinarily unpopular president, whose policies McCain has staunchly defended and supported (95 percent voting congruence in 2007). In the recent CBS News/NYTimes poll, Bush is at 28 percent approval, 65 percent disapproval; in the Hart/Newhouse poll, he is at 27 percent approval, 66 percent disapproval. While some presidents have fallen to low levels in the past, what is truly remarkable about Bush is how long-term and persistent voter disapproval of him has been, and the depth of voter sentiment: A May 12 Washington Post/ABC poll showed only 15 percent of voters "strongly approve," while 52 percent "strongly disapprove."

Voters think, correctly, that the country is on the wrong track. In the Hart/Newhouse poll, 15 percent of voters said the country was headed in the "right direction," while an astounding 73 percent said "wrong direction." Remember, these polls include all voters, not just Democrats.

The U.S. economy is sinking (while McCain has said he doesn't know much about the economy); gas prices are skyrocketing; the housing market has collapsed and people are losing their homes; and the Iraq Recession shows no signs of abating.

McCain has been able to stay close to parity in polls matching him with Obama, but that is the product of the bashing Obama has taken from the Clinton campaign. Once that internal scrap is behind him and he can go head to head against McCain, his polling is going to soar.

Even in fund-raising, a traditional Republican strength, the Republicans are at a disadvantage. At last reported count, Obama had $51 million in cash on hand; McCain had $11 million. In the combined cash of the national party committees, Republicans had $55.5 million; Democrats $87.1 million. The netroots has raised unprecedented amounts of money for Democrats, especially Obama.

Simply put, this is the worst possible time for any Republican to be running for president. And this is not simply my opinion; it is an opinion that has many adherents in the Republican Party and among traditional Republican supporters. Representative Tom Davis, from Virginia, in an internal memo to Republicans, recently wrote, "The political atmosphere facing Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006.The Republican brand is in the trash can. If we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf."

The problem with McCain is that his brain is no longer working. There is something wrong. Many doctor friends of mine hypothesize Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, which is consistent with his 5½ years of great stress in prison and which can explain his violent temper, his memory lapses and his frequent mental disconnects. It also is possible that he is suffering mini-strokes, which cause momentary double vision, partial blackouts and confusion, and which could explain why he can say incredibly stupid things, sometimes the same dumb thing several times in one day, without appearing to understand what he just said. Whatever the specific cause, he is not healthy, and mentally he is struggling to hold it together.

What we are going to see in the general election from McCain is a ton of mistakes. The very thing the press likes about him, his candor and shoot-from-the-hip style, is going to kill him when the full weight of media attention is trained on him. He never has been a good speaker with a prepared text (last night, his speech was characteristically wooden, with several word confusions). The media has always loved the quick, gritty, candid McCain, but that version is gone; he now is a damaged, slower-thinking McCain, but his habits will remain the same. He will still try to be the quick wit, the maverick; it just isn't going to work. And while McCain is still capable (with help) of firing off some zingers that hit, he will be unable to sustain a narrative -- or fool the American voters -- for the next five months. This is not just about being 71; it is about being a very old 71. It might be sad to watch, but I for one will have no sympathy. There is too much at stake.

Obama is the perfect candidate for Democrats, and a nightmare for McCain. Obama, who by every metric is a brilliant strategist, thinker and speaker, is going to run circles around McCain. McCain, who is not a very good speaker even on his best day, will appear slow, befuddled and confused; he will make gaffes. Obama will be charismatic, smart, thoughtful, high-minded, alert and substantive. It will be no contest. And adding to Obama's natural advantages, McCain has just enough integrity to try to match up with Obama on issues. In that debate on substance, Obama's overwhelming intellectual superiority and mental alertness will become obvious. There will be the believers, who have jumped aboard the Obama campaign and will continue to multiply, but there also is going to be another type of vote that is going to swing heavily to Obama: the default vote. Voters are going to default to Obama because it will become obvious that McCain simply is not up to the task of being president.

This is going to be the first not-close presidential election since 1988. You heard it here first.

link (http://www.alternet.org/election08/87225/?page=1)

[Documad]

Everybody thought George W. Bush was an aging frat boy who was only 1/10th as smart as Gore. Because of this the expectations for Bush were low and when he was able to speak in complete sentences he got terrific press.

Republicans are going to do the same now -- set expectations for Obama high and McCain low, tell democrats that Obama is going to win in a landslide and then our folks stay home (as usual) while their base turns out to vote against gay marriage.

Plus it's a long way till November!!!!

[NoFenders]

Yeah, he thinks he's the President already too. :rolleyes:


:cool:

[NoFenders]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/clinton.supporters/index.html

A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that if Obama does not select Clinton as his running mate, 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall -- and another 17 percent would vote for McCain.

As Clinton wrapped up her remarks Saturday in Washington with a plea for supporters to work "as hard for Barack Obama as you have for me," many were posting messages saying they would never vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee. A few even called on her backers to visit Sen. John McCain's campaign Web site.

"I love her and will vote for her in 2012, but it's McCain all the way now," wrote one within moments of the former first lady's address.

:cool:

[QueenAdrock]

Yeah and if you actually read the initial post you would have also read this:

17% of Hillary voters have said they'd go to McCain (60% to Obama), which would make it 29.4 million in the Obama category, and 12.6 million in McCain's category, based on the numbers we have present to us now. McCain would still have quite a bit of catching up to do, rallying the Republican vote, appealing to moderates, getting new time voters. Obama has already appealed to new time voters and will continue to do so, and has a ton of Democratic support. All this talk about "splitting" the party doesn't quite add up.

[Echewta]

I remember when I thought Kerry would win. No problem. How could something as lame as 1 of his purple hearts being in question, that hes smart, or that he windsurfs actually be negative. hahaha.

Oh.

[yeahwho]

I remember when I thought Kerry would win. No problem. How could something as lame as 1 of his purple hearts being in question, that hes smart, or that he windsurfs actually be negative. hahaha.

Oh.

Exactly. John McCain will not lie down and let Barack Obama walk over him to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. John McCain hasn't even let our country be attacked, plus he is an interesting, engaging intelligent American... something George W. Bush isn't and never was.

I put much more creedence in the other set of numbers, cash;


Obama (http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.php?cid=N00009638&cycle=2008)

McCain (http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.php?cid=N00006424&cycle=2008)

[Documad]

I remember when I thought Kerry would win. No problem. How could something as lame as 1 of his purple hearts being in question, that hes smart, or that he windsurfs actually be negative. hahaha.

Oh.
I still can't believe Kerry lost.

[Bob]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/clinton.supporters/index.html

A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that if Obama does not select Clinton as his running mate, 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall -- and another 17 percent would vote for McCain.

As Clinton wrapped up her remarks Saturday in Washington with a plea for supporters to work "as hard for Barack Obama as you have for me," many were posting messages saying they would never vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee. A few even called on her backers to visit Sen. John McCain's campaign Web site.

"I love her and will vote for her in 2012, but it's McCain all the way now," wrote one within moments of the former first lady's address.

:cool:

this is more or less immediately after clinton losing the primary mind you. i have a feeling a fair few of those minds will be changed before november, after all the campaigning is done and they realize what the difference between obama and mccain will actually be. right now they're just being immature and pissy

[WildBaldMonkey]

reguardless of who wins, we b fucked!!

[NoFenders]

+ 1,000

:cool:

[QueenAdrock]

+1000 what? Did he get ringing endorsements from a lot of the geriatrics at the Old Country Buffet?

Last I saw, it's 47% - 43%, Obama. Keep up the good work. (y)

[NoFenders]

+1000 means that I agree with WildBallMonkey

Just try and keep up (y)

:cool:

[QueenAdrock]

New numbers!

Sixty-three percent of Democrats questioned say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year. Only 37 percent of Republicans feel the same way, and 36 percent of Republicans say they are not enthusiastic about voting.

I agree with Chewy that he's the equivelent to Bob Dole.