Four years ago.....

[Dharma]

...around this time, a few weeks before the election.

Who was ahead in the polls?

I forget.

[Dorothy Wood]

probably Kerry, considering my friends and I were completely shocked when he didn't win. no idea though, I'm sure the internet has the answer!

edit: oop, I guess bush was ahead, according to this thingy:
http://people-press.org/commentary/?analysisid=102

[Dharma]

Thanks!

I thought Bush was behind.

[Randetica]

maybe 8 years ago

[DroppinScience]

...around this time, a few weeks before the election.

Who was ahead in the polls?

I forget.

I don't precisely remember each and every poll in 2004, but my impression has been was that it was ALWAYS a dead-lock or intermittent moments where Bush was ahead or Kerry was ahead (but only barely ahead in both respects). Either way, the margins were really thin.

Here we are in 2008, and Obama in most polls I look at (I go by the CNN Poll of Polls the most since they give an average of maybe 4 or 5 separate polls) and he's been 9 points ahead. In fact, Obama has always been ahead this whole time. There was a brief point towards the end of August and beginning of September where it was a dead heat or McCain was barely ahead. People started predicting doom and gloom and saying this would be another Dukakis 1988 scenario.

We'll all know better in less than 2 weeks from now, but it's increasingly looking bad for McCain now and NOTHING is helping. There are solid-red red states that are now looking to go blue for the first time in a damn long time. This is astounding. I know we're all fairly guarded because we've been hurt before, but I'm slowly feeling more optimistic.

We'll see, we'll see...

[Dharma]

I only go by CNN statistics as well, but aren't there more Democratic voters in these polls, so they are always off a bit anyway?

It just seems that their polls always favor the Democratic party.

[DroppinScience]

I only go by CNN statistics as well, but aren't there more Democratic voters in these polls, so they are always off a bit anyway?

It just seems that their polls always favor the Democratic party.

They claim to poll "likely voters" (no idea of the proportion of Democratic, Republican, and non-aligned voters), which means they're not taking into account first-time voters (and it's expected to have a LOT of first-time voters or those who have never voted or never voted in a long time). I'm pretty sure Fox News has 90% uber-GOP faithful in their polling.

If you're addicted to polls, I recommend you check this site out:

http://www.pollster.com/

I think it compiles itself from every poll that has ever existed regarding this race. So click around and check daily.